中国寿险需求影响因素的检验

本文运用面板数据分析方法．从宏观角度实证分析了1997～2003年中国内地30个省（市）寿险需求的影响因素，探讨了经济发展、教育水平、居民储蓄存款、人均可支配收入、竞争程度因素对寿险保费收入的影响。实证检验发现，以上因素对一个地区的寿险需求均有显著的正向影响。我国各地区寿险市场的发展是“经济推动型”，寿险市场发展不平衡的根本原因在于经济发展不平衡。     

The shading and distancing of commerce: When internalization is not enough

A political economy of degradation and of sustainability should account not only for the full range of production costs but the sources of those costs. It should consider how the pursuit of wealth can, deliberately or not, lead to uncounted costs and unaccountable actors. This article explores the conditions of cost generation and externalization, especially those that are largely unintended and inadvertent. It shows how the pursuit of wealth, the expansion of markets, the mobility of capital, and the entanglements of production processes can lead to the unwitting generation and displacement of costs. It analyzes competitive business strategy and patterns of production and consumption for their contribution to such costs. Business strategy and state policy tend to create a never-ending search for frontiers, however simulated and however unecological they may be. The costs generated in those frontiers are a function of shading, that is, obscuring of costs, and distancing, the separation of production and consumption decisions, both of which impede ecological and social feedback and create cognitive, institutional, and ethical lags between initial benefits and eventual full costs. As distance increases along dimensions of geography, culture, bargaining power, or agency, negative feedback loops are severed, stakeholders expand while decision making contracts, environmental problems are displaced, and shading and cost externalization increase. The likelihood of sustainable resource use increases as distance is lowered, as institutions locate decision authority in those who receive negative ecological feedback and who have the capacity and incentives to act on that feedback, and as the burden of proof for economic interventions shifts to the interveners.     

企业集团的价值创造与协同效应的实现机制

企业集团这种组织形式的存在和演进是备受学术界关注的问题.本文从价值创造角度,对企业集团的成员企业异质性、协同效应的特殊性进行了深入分析,进一步明确了企业集团的存在本质.本文认为,基于企业异质性基础上的协同效应的实现是企业集团的形成和演进的根本,企业集团的协同效应有着自身特殊的生成机理,它既要在附属企业层面得到体现,更要在集团总部实现进一步的价值创造.本文还从实践层面分析了国内外企业集团的差距,并就我国企业集团的发展战略提出了几点建议.     

非均衡的经济动态模型

本文旨在按现实世界的本来面目建立一个非均衡的内生经济动态模型。在这个模型中 ,源于部门内和部门间关系的内生变量导致资本市场、消费品市场上产量和价格的波动。市场的非均衡过程、存货调节机制以及经济人的最优行为和适应性行为是基于对现实世界的观察进行模拟的。静态性质及其稳定性是作为一般市场动态过程的特例加以讨论的。     

Seasonality and Markov switching in an unobserved component time series model

It is generally acknowledged that the growth rate of output, the seasonal pattern, and the business cycle are best estimated simultaneously. To achieve this, we develop an unobserved component time series model for seasonally unadjusted US GDP. Our model incorporates a Markov switching regime to produce periods of expansion and recession, both of which are characterized by different underlying growth rates. Although both growth rates are time-varying, they are assumed to be cointegrated. The analysis is Bayesian, which fully accounts for all sources of uncertainty. Comparison with results from a similar model for seasonally adjusted data indicates that the seasonal adjustment of the data significantly alters several aspects of the full model. First Version Received: January 2001/Final Version Received: February 2002 Send offprint requests to: Rob Luginbuhl?Correspondence to: Rob Luginbuhl     

“新经济”与经济周期

20世纪 90年代 ,美国等西方发达国家进入了以知识经济为基础的“新经济”时代。“新经济”的发展的确使经济周期出现了一些与以往不同的新特点 ,但它没有也不可能从根本上消除经济周期本身。那种认为“新经济”可以消除经济周期的观点是没有现实依据的     

长期护理保险在中国的选择-基于制度经济学的分析

为了解决人口老龄化背景下的老年护理问题,德国、日本先后于1995年1月1日、2000年4月1日启动长期护理保险制度。我国在1999年也已经进入老龄化国家行列,老龄化并呈加速趋势。我国农村家庭养老看护功能日益削弱、城镇养老机构数量不足、新型居家养老模式的资金来源不足。有必要借鉴德国、日本长期护理保险制度,采取城市的居家养老护理保险与农村的老年护理救助模式。基于制度经济学的角度,从价值支持、意识形态支持、成本支持与路径支持上论证了该制度的可行性。     

构建现代企业财务管理机制的思考

落后的财务管理思想、机制和方法,是中国企业规模小、效益差、生命周期短的深层次的和根本的原因。因此,建立完善的现代企业财务管理机制是提高我国企业经济效益和建立现代企业制度的重要途径。财务管理机制作为现代企业管理系统中最为重要的子系统,它应该围绕运行机制、动力机制、监督机制和控制机制四项内容而建立和完善。     

企业理论之新解释:一个基于知识管理的模型

企业理论研究往往关注三个基本问题:"企业为什么存在、企业和市场的边界是什么";"为什么企业会有所不同,是什么原因导致了这种不同";以及这些理论如何被应用于企业以获得持久的竞争优势.本文力图在这三个方面作出理论探索:一是从知识管理的角度回答企业理论的几个基本问题;二是建立一个基于知识传输的模型,并基于这个模型提出了四个可以检验的命题;三是讨论该模型对战略管理实践的启示.     

在商法与消费者法之间寻求平衡的保险法--美国《责任保险法重述》评述与启示

《责任保险法重述》可以说是美国保险法近年来发展的总结。《重述》以被保险人与保险人之间的权利义务关系为中心展开,以亲保险人规则(Pro Insurer Rule)与亲被保险人规则(Pro Insured Rule)之间的冲突博弈为主线,在保险合同解释、不实陈述、抗辩义务、强制执行与救济等方面对规则进行了澄清。伴随着金融消费者权益保护运动的兴起,我国保险法未来发展是更偏向于消费者权益保护法还是商法,长期以来存在争议。由于美国对我国保险法的规则制定和保险业务实践均有不同程度的影响,因此,以《重述》作为我们观察的制度样本,不仅可以从规则内容上为我国保险法改革提供借鉴;而且还提供了以"美国"作为方法论,探讨《重述》经历项目性质变更,在后金融危机时代保护保险消费者利益与维护保险人商业经营之间所作的努力与妥协,为我们回答"商法"与"消费者法"之争提供参考。